Kenya's Collapse
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE
January 31, 2008
A rigged election, ethnic violence, economic
dysfunction and now a political assassination -- the crisis in Kenya
has hit a sad superfecta. Worse, the politicians who loosed these
forces don't look capable of reining them back in.
It's been a month since this once-placid country
exploded. When incumbent President Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner
of the December 27 election, supporters of challenger Raila Odinga took
to the streets. They claimed Mr. Kibaki, who had been trailing in
opinion polls, stole the election through massive fraud. International
observers say the vote was such a shambles that it's impossible to know
who really won.
Hopes that the civic outrage at electoral fraud was a
sign of democratic maturation were fast shattered. The death toll
surged, with reports that police were ordered to put down the early
protests with lethal force if necessary. Now human-rights groups claim
the opposition has been organizing brutal attacks on members of Mr.
Kibaki's Kikuyu tribe -- a charge that Mr. Odinga denies. In all, at
least 850 Kenyans have been killed and more than a quarter of a million
have fled their homes. Another spate of interethnic killings was
triggered by the apparent assassination in Nairobi Tuesday of a
moderate lawmaker aligned with Mr. Odinga.
Messrs. Kibaki and Odinga have ill-served their own
people by doing little to nothing to mend the political rift -- which,
in the meantime, turned into a potentially far more dangerous tribal
conflict. Both politicians are to blame for the machete-wielding men
and innocents burned to death in village churches, bloody episodes that
are eerily reminiscent of Rwanda in 1994. Some in Kenya now wonder
whether either man still wields control over his ethnic faction.
A political solution, perhaps involving a form of
power-sharing until calm returns and a fresh election can be called, is
a prerequisite to stopping the violence. But it will be difficult to
pull off. One possibility that's been floated would have Mr. Odinga
serve as Prime Minister alongside President Kibaki. But the Odinga camp
may not trust Mr. Kibaki to follow through, since the President earlier
reneged on a deal to make Mr. Odinga the Premier in exchange for his
support in the country's 2002 election.
Rerunning the election soon, or recounting the
December tally, would also be highly problematic. At this point,
there's little reason to believe that the loser, whether the Kibaki or
the Odinga side, would accept the results. The vote itself, one Kenyan
democratic activist says, would have to be either beyond reproach or
result in a landslide win for one candidate. A democracy in which only
large margins are respected isn't really a democracy.
Even if a political deal can be struck, the violence
may not end quickly. The Luo tribe of Mr. Odinga, along with the
Kalenjin and other clans, feels that the Kikuyus have kept too many of
the spoils of independence and recent economic growth. Unhappiness with
inequalities in wealth and land ownership are as much of a sore point
as who gets political power. The two sides are forming militias -- in
many cases, we're told, with the help of organized crime -- that will
not necessarily be satisfied by seeing the politicians playing nice.
A lasting peace will have to include a shift away from
granting power and wealth solely on the basis of tribal identity. This
favoritism is a form of corruption, one of the most persistent ills
across all of Africa. Rooting out such an ingrained system won't be
easy. The democratic institutions that so far haven't stopped the
current ethnic violence will have to be strengthened. They include an
independent judiciary to review vote-fraud allegations and law
enforcement that citizens respect.
Messrs. Kibaki and Odinga could best help their
countrymen by finding a way to work toward these goals. Otherwise,
they're merely arguing over who gets to preside over the next African
tragedy.