Elections amid uncertainty
TIMOR-LESTE | Thursday, 5 April 2007 | Views [893]
Campaigning is currently underway ahead of East Timor's 9 April 2007 presidential election. The country's prime minister, Jose Ramos-Horta, is seen as the favourite to win but he faces stiff competition from seven other candidates, with the current president, Xanana Gusmao, not standing for re-election. This will be the country's second presidential election since gaining independence from Indonesia. The situation in the country is a far cry from that during the last elections in 2002 when the country was looking forward to full independence and a promising future. Five years later the young country's future is far from certain.
Today, order and stability have become elusive. Clashes between rival gangs are common, and refugee camps are now home to thousands of East Timorese. International peacekeepers are once again patrolling the streets, though they have themselves become a source of tension in the country after accusations that they killed two East Timorese men without provocation in an incident during February. Rebel soldiers have become a serious security issue in the run-up to the elections, with concerns raised that they may disrupt the voting process. Alfredo Reinado, the leader of the rebel soldiers, has now become a cult figure in the country and is enjoying growing popular support - especially after an unsuccessful attempt by Australian peacekeepers to capture him in early March 2007. The raid prompted hundreds of young men to show their support for Reinado by blockading roads in the capital, Dili, with burning tyres and cement blocks, forcing President Gusmao to give international peacekeepers emergency powers to quell the unrest. This ongoing instability and violence has lead to growing concerns over East Timor's future.
Yet, less than a year ago few would have predicted this situation. Problems only began to emerge in April 2006, when former-prime minister Mari Alkatiri dismissed 600 soldiers from the country's fledgling 1,400-member military, amid a strike over perceived discrimination in pay and working conditions. It was Alkatiri's mishandling of this volatile situation that led to the rapid collapse of civil order around Dili, spreading throughout the country.
On its own the dismissal of those 600 soldiers (many of whom are now members of Reinado's rebels) should not have had the impact it did. Instead, it appears to have been the spark behind growing dissatisfaction and tensions within East Timor, problems that were far from evident before. Civil order collapsed amid violent demonstrations and resulted in the displacement of thousands of people. Rival gangs clashed over territory, and launched attacks on refugee camps. Fighting broke out among opposing factions within the police and military, and divisions between people from the east of the island (Lorosae) and those from the west (Loromonu) soon emerged as a factor in the violence. The widespread rioting and fighting after the dismissal, which eventually left 37 people dead and displaced more than 150,000 others, prompted the return of Australian-led international peacekeepers - less than a year after the end of the six-year United Nations (UN) mission to the country.
The ongoing instability has cast serious doubts on the success of the upcoming elections. The election campaign has already been marred by violence, with clashes between members of rival political parties on 29 March in Viqueque, a town 220km from Dili, during a campaign rally by Jose Ramos-Horta. Further violence is likely, especially on election day, despite efforts by international peacekeepers. However, the greatest concern is not that there may be violence around these elections, but that even with a successful election the country's current problems are unlikely to be easily resolved.
The underlying sources of the current instability, including poverty, inequality and ethnic divisions, will take many years and an effective, popular government to address properly. This, however, is nonetheless attainable. Economically, East Timor holds great potential, with rich offshore natural gas resources only recently being tapped. Politically, the current prime minister, Jose Ramos-Horta, and the current president, Xanana Gusmao, have already proven to be a popular and respected team. Ramos-Horta will in all likelihood win the presidential election, while Gusmao has stated that he will postpone his retirement to run for prime minister later this year. If both are successful, the foundation for a respected and effective government will be in place.
In the long-term, a solution to East Timor's current instability will have to come from within and cannot be provided by ongoing interventions by the international community. The 9 April election amid incredible uncertainty and under the threat of further violence, is the best hope that East Timor has to find such a solution.
Tags: travel safety, red24, east timor, elections, timor-leste
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