The northern insurgency reignites
YEMEN | Friday, 9 March 2007 | Views [1167]
Clashes between government troops and Shiite rebels in Yemen's northern province of Saada continue to rage. Although precise figures are hard to obtain due to a military-enforced media blackout in the region, unconfirmed reports suggest that over 400 Yemeni troops and 150-plus Shiite guerrillas have been killed since January. There are, as of yet, no accurate reports on the total number of civilian casualties. The fighting in the region, some 200km north of the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, has the potential to spread and escalate, further destabilising an already fragile state.
The province of Saada has long been ravaged by rebellion and this latest uprising, dubbed 'Al-Houthi's sedition' by Yemenis, is by no means a new movement. Well-armed Shiite rebels have repeatedly been involved in bloody confrontations with government forces since Shiite cleric Hussein al-Houthi and his group, Al Shabab al-Moumin or the Believing Youth, declared war against the Yemeni state in 2004 over what they perceived to be the promotion of Sunni Salafi ideology at the expense of their Zaidi Shiite sect in Saada province, historically the fortress of Zaydism in Yemen. Al-Houthi also viewed the Yemeni government as corrupt and traitorous for its cooperation with Israel and the United States, particularly in the global war on terror.
Although Hussein al-Houthi was killed by government forces early in the insurgency, a sporadic conflict in Saada has raged now for three years, costing the Yemeni state an estimated US$800m and claiming the lives of several hundred troops, rebels and civilians. Many more have been injured or driven from their homes. It was thought that Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh's initiative to release 600 al-Houthi supporters in an amnesty in May 2006 would go some way to ending the violence, but, although a tentative truce held until early this year, violence has now reignited in the Saada region. On 27 January, Shiite rebels, now known as the Mujahedeen Group and led by Hussein al-Houthi's brother, Abdul Malik, launched a mortar attack on a security building in the Saada region, killing six soldiers. This attack followed an incident on 10 January when 45 Jewish families in the town of al-Haid, in Saada, received threatening letters from Shiite rebels that drove them from their homes. Al-Houthi and his movement have stated that their attacks are a response to the government's failure to honour agreements regarding military activity and territorial control in Saada. However, the government has denied that any such agreements had been made and responded to the attacks by launching a full-scale military assault against the rebels in early February 2007.
The result has been yet another bloody confrontation. Pitched battles in the region's mountainous areas have raged for weeks, hit-and-run guerrilla attacks are increasingly common and army losses are suspected to be high. However, this violence has the potential to escalate even further. In the military's determination to crush the uprising, it has been accused of using excessive force. Homes, schools and farms have already been destroyed and civilian casualties are alleged to be high. Considering Yemen's tribal structure, which has a strong emphasis on honour and revenge, the Shiite rebels are likely to receive more support, which will only increase the longevity and intensity of their campaign.
In addition, although the violence is currently contained in the Saada province and particularly in and around the al-Talh and Saqeen Mountains and the al-Habayel area of the region, it does have the potential to spread further afield. Abdul Malik al-Houthi has threatened to expand his group's sphere of operations, noting that his forces had already opened up a new front in the Khulan Amer area of Saada with relative ease. The authorities in Yemen appear to believe that al-Houthi's threat is credible. Security in the streets of Sana'a has increased noticeably over the past few weeks. Police and military units have installed roadblocks and have been conducting searches and identity verifications. Although General Mohammed al-Qawsi, deputy minister of the interior, said that the security campaign was unrelated to the problems in Saada, a source within the Yemeni police force admitted that the security surge was a response to the increased Shiite rebel threat. The security forces have also been on alert in the Dhamar and Marib provinces, hinting that the al-Houthi movement has either the capability or the ambition to strike in those areas as well.
Unfortunately, the likelihood of a swift and peaceful solution to the current crisis appears low. In an effort to isolate the rebels, the military has imposed a communications blackout across the Saada region, making negotiation all but impossible. Even if this communication blockade was lifted, the two sides' positions appear entrenched. The government views al-Houthi and his supporters as a significant threat to its authority and it is very eager to bring an end to a movement that has perpetuated three costly years of conflict and instability. Meanwhile, the rebels, as demonstrated through their dogged refusal to join the political process and through their consistent attacks, appear to be ideological hardliners unwilling to pursue their goals through peaceful means. Such polarisation suggests that a prolonged conflict is likely, especially since a decisive strike on the al-Houthi leadership currently appears remote.
As it is, President Saleh, and Yemen itself, cannot afford a robust insurgency in one of its northern provinces. Firstly, the complex sectarian and tribal nature of the Shiite rebellion has the potential to upset the delicate power base of the ruling party, the General People's Congress. Various personalities, both in government and the opposition, may well use the opportunity to advance their own conflicting interests if the government is perceived as weak, and this could further destabilise Yemen. Secondly, a long-running insurgency and an accompanying military campaign will certainly damage investor confidence, something that Yemen, as the poorest country in the Arab world, can ill afford.
Although the al-Houthi Zaidi Shiite rebellion is currently confined to Yemen's northern territory, it is a bloody and costly insurgency that has the potential not only to spread but also to escalate in intensity, triggering further political and economic instability in Yemen. Unless a political or military solution can be found to the violence in Saada, Yemen faces a bleak future.
Tags: travel safety, red24, shiite, rebels, yemen
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