Kosovo - a potential flashpoint
SERBIA & MONTENEGRO | Thursday, 8 February 2007 | Views [1138]
On 2 February 2007, the United Nations (UN) Special Envoy to Kosovo, former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, presented his plan for the future of the troubled Serb province. Ahtisaari’s proposal allows Kosovo supervised separation from Serbia and the territory would be allowed its own national symbols, including an anthem and a flag, and could apply for membership of international organisations like the UN. However, in an effort to appease Serbia, the proposal made no explicit mention of independence, although many believe that Ahtisaari’s plan is an irrevocable step in that direction.
Although technically a province within Serbia, Kosovo has been in UN-administered limbo for eight years since a NATO bombing campaign forced Serbian forces to withdraw in 1999. It is one of the poorest regions in Europe, with a per capita income of about US$1,600 per year and an estimated unemployment rate of about 40 percent. It is a region beset with clan rivalries and ethnic tensions and has a reputation for corruption and organised crime. Of its some two million people, about 90 percent are ethnic Albanians, the overwhelming majority of which want independence from Serbia. The remaining 200,000 or so are largely orthodox Christian Serbs and they, like their compatriots in Serbia, insist on keeping the province within Serbia’s borders. Talks between the two sides have been ongoing for years, but an agreement has never been forthcoming. Ahtisaari’s compromise plan is an effort to end the deadlock, although some are concerned that it will simply spark renewed violence.
The plan has already caused significant consternation in the region. Serbian President Boris Tadic immediately refused to accept it, stating that Serbia would never agree to an independent Kosovo. Serbs in Kosovo expressed dismay and anger and the head of Kosovo’s moderate Serbian List Party, Oliver Ivanovic, threatened full-scale war in the province if it attempted independence. Meanwhile, mainstream politicians from Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority appeared to approve of Ahtisaari’s recommendations. Radical Kosovo Albanian groups, however, promised protests, claiming that the plan did not go far enough or quickly enough. With tensions running high and given the horrors that blighted Yugoslavia’s break-up in the 1990s, there are concerns that Ahtisaari’s Kosovo roadmap could trigger a further bout of ethno-centric violence and bloodshed. However, red24 believes that such an outcome is unlikely. Although the situation is unstable and unpredictable, only isolated acts of violence can be expected in the short- to medium-term.
One fear is that Ahtisaari’s plan will not satisfy many Kosovo Albanians, who have grown weary of waiting for full and official independence from Serbia. There are worries that ethnic Albanians will take out these frustrations on local Serbs in the region. They point to March 2004 as an indicator of the possible unrest that might now follow when independence-demanding mobs attacked Serbs, their property and their historic religious monuments throughout the province. Nineteen people died, many more were injured, and thousands were driven from their homes and communities. The situation today, however, is quite different. In 2004, the violence was not a spontaneous reaction caused by widespread frustration, but an organised rebellion arranged and sanctioned by people close to Kosovo’s leading political parties as a demonstration to the international community of their clout and of the ramifications if they did not get what they wanted. Today, there is widespread belief among Kosovo Albanians that they are getting independence, albeit not as quickly as some of them might have hoped. Many political parties in the Kosovo capital, Pristina, also realise that violence will only jeopardise this path to self-determination and that they therefore ought to try to keep a lid on any unrest. Furthermore, the 17,000-strong NATO-led Kosovo force (KFOR) currently in the province is well equipped to deal with any violence.
Other commentators are concerned with the Serbian reaction to the proposal. Kosovo holds an almost mythical status for many Serbs - it is seen as an ancestral homeland and many view Kosovo independence as an anathema. With the ultra-nationalist Radical Party winning the largest share of the vote in the Serbian elections held on 21 January 2007, people have speculated that Serbia might attempt to retake the province. However, this is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Although the Radical Party won the highest percentage of the vote, it will not be in power, as it collected fewer votes than the combined total of two other parties, the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Serbia, which together are likely to form a governing coalition. Both of these parties have explicitly ruled out using military means to keep Kosovo inside of Serbia and both are pro-European Union.
The greatest risk of violence emanates from extremists on both sides of the ethnic divide in Kosovo itself. Despite Ahtisaari’s proposal to safeguard the interests of Kosovo’s Serbs, including the Serbian Orthodox Church and language, leading Kosovo Serbs denounced the plan and radicals threatened violence and outright war should the province move toward independence. Although Serbs in Kosovo do not make up nearly a high enough percentage of the population to attempt any meaningful military or paramilitary action, any organised protests could escalate and isolated incidents of violence could occur, particularly in the medium and large Serb enclaves in the central and eastern parts of the territory. In addition, radical groups within the ethnic Albanian majority have also expressed bitter dissatisfaction with the plan. Some are angry that it does not grant immediate independence, while others are worried about the degree of autonomy granted to Serbs within the province. Protests have been planned and sporadic violence may occur as many people in the territory are poorly informed about the process and have unrealistic expectations.
The UN proposal on Kosovo’s final status was always likely to cause some upheaval and instability. Ahtisaari’s compromise package is unlikely to be the catalyst for the mass ethno-centric violence the region has previously witnessed. However, the situation remains unstable and unpredictable, and red24 advises against all travel to the region at this time.
Tags: travel safety, red24, kosovo, united nations, serbia
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