The Philippines – the terror risk examined
PHILIPPINES | Thursday, 26 October 2006 | Views [1751]
On 16 October 2006, the UK, US and Australian governments issued travel warnings for the Philippines and cautioned against all travel to Mindanao, the country’s second largest island, and to the Sulu archipelago, which includes the islands of Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and Jolo. This revised travel advice and increased caution in relation to the Southeast Asian country comes in response to recent terrorist activity. The archipelago of the Philippines, with its 7,000 islands, wide variety of ethnic and tribal groups, pervasive poverty and weak political system has become a fertile environment for insurgent groups and there are several terrorist organisations currently active in Philippines’ territory. The majority of these groups are based in Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago. Although the surge in violence is currently contained to these southern islands, the Philippine, UK, US and Australian governments are also warning that terrorist elements in the Philippines may be in the final stages of plotting terrorists attacks on holiday resorts and public infrastructure throughout the country. As a consequence, travellers to the Philippines are advised to be extremely vigilant and to exercise caution at all times.
On 10 October, a bomb tore through a crowded street during a festival in Makilala, killing at least six people and injuring 29 more. That same day, an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in the province of Sultan Kudarat. The following day, a second IED made from an 81mm mortar shell exploded outside a bank in Mindanao’s North Cotaboto province, before a third IED was found again in Makilala, this time defused by police. These four bombings in the space of two days appear to be the work of either the Abu Sayyaf group (ASG) or the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). These two militant Islamist groups have been fighting the government for over 20 years in an effort to establish an Islamic state in Mindanao. Both have been blamed by various Philippines’ agencies for the recent attacks.
It is currently unclear whether the October bombings were the doing of ASG or a re-commencement of hostilities on the part of MILF. Nonetheless, intelligence indicating that terrorist elements are presently in the final stages of planning attacks on holiday resorts and public infrastructure is extremely troubling. Although MILF and the government are ostensibly engaged in peace talks, the discussions have stalled and both sides have prepared for a renewal of fighting. North Cotabato governor Emmanuel Pinol has placed blame for the bombings at MILF’s door and warned the people in his province to ‘be vigilant and ready to go to war if necessary’. Furthermore, both ASG and MILF have personality and logistical ties to JI and al-Qaeda and both have the capacity and the intent to organise highly lethal attacks anywhere in the Philippines. ASG has a track record of striking civilian targets, such as ferries, markets, shopping malls and foreign embassies, and both groups have successfully utilised kidnapping of foreign nationals to further their political goals.
Also of concern are the intelligence reports that the Rajah Solaiman Movement (an affiliate of ASG) has operatives in the area surrounding the capital, Manila. This group, whose membership consists largely of Christians who have converted to Islam, have reportedly been trained, financed and directed by ASG and JI, and since their recruits are drawn from the main island of Luzon, they are familiar with the territory and speak the local dialect. They have also not taken Muslim names and as a result, they have largely flown beneath the radars of both the police and the security services and are well placed to plan and carry out terrorist attacks at the country’s core. Although the Philippines’ security forces, relying on intelligence gathered from interrogations and intercepted mobile phone calls, are currently searching for these operatives, their task is difficult and the threat remains significant.
red24 believes that if militants are planning attacks, it is likely that they will attempt to strike in Manila or other major cities between the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan on 24 October and 1 November, the Roman Catholic holiday of All Saints Day. This holiday period is religiously symbolic and sees large numbers of people travelling and gathering. As a consequence, the period provides an attractive target window. Additionally, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, to be held in Cebu City in December, is a possible target for those militants seeking a high-profile ‘spectacular’. The risk of kidnapping is also pervasive throughout the whole country. Accordingly, tourists and expats should exercise particular caution when travelling by boat to and from offshore islands and dive sites as such vessels are possible targets for ASG and MILF kidnap gangs. red24 currently advises against all travel to Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago.
Tags: travel safety, philippines, red24, basilian, tawi-tawi, jolo, minando
