ETA ends ceasefire
SPAIN | Thursday, 14 June 2007 | Views [565]
On 5 June 2007, the armed Basque separatist group Euzkadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) announced an end to its 15-month-long ceasefire and warned that it would now be ‘active on all fronts to defend the Basque homeland’. In a communiqué sent to two pro-independence Basque newspapers, Berria and Gara, ETA laid the blame for its decision to return to violence squarely on Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero, who they said had abandoned the peace process and instigated ‘arrests, tortures and every type of persecution’ against the Basque people. The collapse of the ceasefire has dashed hopes of resolving the separatist conflict and raises the spectre of a new wave of ETA-orchestrated terror attacks.
ETA has been fighting for over 40 years to establish an independent, possibly Marxist, Basque state encompassing the mountainous north eastern Spanish provinces of Vizcaya, Guipuzcoa, Alava, and Navarra and the south western French departments of Labourd, Basse-Navarra and Soule. Although it claims to fight for the independence of the whole Basque region, ETA has focused its activities primarily on the Spanish side of the border. The organisation’s separatist campaign adopted the tactics of bombing, assassination, rocket attacks, kidnapping, extortion, harassment and intimidation, and since it was founded in 1959, the group has killed over 800 people and has become recognised as one of Europe’s most dangerous terrorist organisations. However, ETA has become increasingly weakened in recent times. Improved cooperation between the Spanish and French authorities has seen hundreds of ETA operatives arrested and detained. In addition, national revulsion in Spain toward all forms of terrorism in the wake of the 2004 Madrid bombings, in which 191 people were killed, has further drained the group of support. Increasingly marginalised, ETA announced a ‘permanent ceasefire’ in March 2006, signalling a desire to engage with the government in Madrid and to begin Northern Ireland-like peace negotiations.
Although the ceasefire brought a general reduction in ETA-inspired violence, the group continued to wage a limited terrorism campaign, harassing and intimidating those opposed to its separatist aims, extorting money from Basque businesses and carrying out robberies and other thefts. The group announced the termination of the ceasefire last week ostensibly as a result of the Spanish government’s refusal to lift an official ban on ETA’s political wing, Batasuna, from contesting local elections at the end of last month. However, ETA’s truce with the Spanish government essentially ended on 30 December 2006, when it detonated a large car bomb at an underground car park at Madrid’s Barajas International Airport, killing two Ecuadorian immigrants and destroying three of the building's four storeys. Despite stating that the bombing was not intended to kill and was meant only as a warning to the Spanish government, the attack demonstrated ETA's ambivalence toward the peace process, and, as a consequence, the group’s recent declaration of a return to violence is relatively unsurprising.
ETA's announcement immediately sparked a flurry of speculation about a new wave of terrorist attacks. The Spanish media quoted reports from Spain’s National Police, Civil Guard and National Intelligence Centre that multiple and varied sources suggested that a resumption of ETA-orchestrated political violence was ‘imminent’ and that a significant attack was likely to occur before August. It is certainly the case that with the tourist season about to start, ETA will have a target-rich environment in which to operate, and it is also the case that although ETA is no longer the force it once was, it remains well positioned to resume its violent campaign. The group continues to have active units in position throughout the country, with Spanish military intelligence estimating that it may have as many as five ‘mobile commando’ units on standby, and the ceasefire has enabled it to re-energise, regroup and rearm. It is reported to have markedly improved its logistical and technical capacity to make explosive devices, and its weapon stocks have been significantly bolstered after it stole 350 pistols from a French arms depot last October. In addition, ETA’s continued extortion operations have financially reinvigorated its organisational infrastructure. As such, it poses a credible threat to Spain’s security environment.
ETA attacks are likely to occur this summer and in the run-up to next year’s general election. Previous ceasefire collapses have traditionally resulted in a quick resumption of ETA attacks, and the ending of the latest ceasefire is likely to be no different. However, red24 does not envisage a return to large-scale attacks designed to cause multiple casualties. The 2004 Madrid bombings seriously weakened support for such tactics, and, as a result, ETA’s attacks are likely to be small in scale, preceded by a warning and aimed at causing damage rather than loss of life. The tourism trade is a high probability target, as striking this industry will increase the economic and political pressure on Madrid. Attacks on multinational business organisations also cannot be ruled out for similar reasons. Sources also suggest that Spanish security officials believe that Madrid and Valencia are also likely targets. Valencia, in particular, may attract ETA’s attention as it is about to host the 32nd Americas Cup yachting race – a potentially high-profile, publicity-generating target. red24 has increased Spain’s terrorism/conflict rating to high to reflect the risk of ETA terrorism in the coming months. Accordingly, all travellers to Spain are advised to exercise caution and vigilance at all times, and to report any suspicious objects, people or activity to security forces immediately.
Tags: travel safety, red24, ceasefire, basque, spain
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