The implications of a Turkish incursion into Iraq
TURKEY | Friday, 8 June 2007 | Views [595]
Unconfirmed reports on 6 June that Turkey had deployed several hundred troops into northern Iraq on a cross-border counter-terrorism operation against Kurdish militants have fuelled concerns that Turkey is planning an imminent and significant incursion into Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. Although Turkey has denied that any such raid has taken place, regional unease over Turkish strategy had already grown in recent weeks following a build-up of troops and equipment along the Turkey-Iraq border and the statement by Turkey’s military chief, General Yasar Buyukanit, on 31 May that the army was ready for an offensive in northern Iraq and was simply waiting for orders to proceed. Although Turkey traditionally surges troops into the border region at this time of year in an effort to avert the Kurdish militants’ spring offensive, Turkish rhetoric suggests that there may be a more aggressive deployment this time round.
Turkey has been struggling with a Kurdish separatist insurgency since the early 1980s. Confrontations between the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Turkish state have left tens of thousands dead and hundreds of thousands displaced. Although the conflict has, for the most part at least, been restricted to the country’s south east, Kurdish militants have consistently demonstrated their ability and desire to strike throughout the country. In the past 18 months, PKK-orchestrated attacks in cities across Turkey have claimed more than 100 lives, and just last month a PKK suicide bomber killed six and wounded more than 90 in an attack at a shopping mall in the capital, Ankara. Such attacks have often triggered military reprisals on PKK bases in south eastern Turkey and northern Iraq. However, despite these operations and despite the fact that 1,000 Turkish troops remain stationed as monitors in northern Iraq, Turkish security forces appear unable to eliminate the PKK threat, and a major incursion into northern Iraq, as Turkey undertook in 1997, is not likely to resolve the issue or even significantly reduce the threat posed by the PKK.
At the heart of the Kurdish separatist movement is widespread discontent with what is perceived to be the Turkish government’s discriminatory attitudes and policies toward the Kurdish community. As a consequence, it is unlikely that military action against the PKK in Iraq, action that will inevitably result in further civilian casualties and population displacement, will improve the Turkish security environment. In fact, any military incursion into northern Iraq is likely simply to increase support for the PKK and fuel future terrorist attacks. The PKK has already demonstrated its ability to strike all over Turkey, and if it feels pressured by Turkish military action, it may well launch retaliatory strikes in order to undermine confidence in the military’s ability to contain the PKK's operations.
A retaliatory bombing campaign is certainly not the only ramification. Northern Iraq is currently one of the few parts of the country with a modicum of stability. A large Turkish incursion into the north could potentially destabilise the Kurdish zone and provide al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups with an enlarged operational theatre, further jeopardising regional stability. This would not only threaten US interests and the security of neighbouring Iran and Syria, but also Turkey itself.
Considering the possible ramifications of a significant Turkish incursion into northern Iraq, it will be hoped that the Turkey’s civilian leadership will contain the military’s aggressive impulses. However, Turkey’s current political situation is such that there can be no guarantees. Recent mass rallies protesting against perceived efforts by the government to undermine Turkey’s secular underpinnings and replace them with Islamist values have significantly weakened the government, forcing Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to call early elections, now scheduled for 22 July. Meanwhile, the military, which has traditionally been politically influential in Turkey, has stated that it will intervene should Erdogan continue to threaten Turkey’s secular nature. As a result, it is feared that the government may be tempted to appease the military by giving it the go-ahead for an aggressive incursion into northern Iraq, particularly since such a move would likely distract the Turkish electorate from recent constitutional controversies and would demonstrate the government’s security credentials and its desire to bring about a swift resolution to the Kurdish conflict.
However, a major military incursion into northern Iraq, although possible, appears unlikely at this stage. Given the possible negative repercussions, both regionally and domestically, as well as the vocal opposition of the United States, a NATO ally, a military incursion by Turkey is potentially more useful as a threat rather than as a deed - especially as a distraction from the current political instability in Turkey. However, this is not to suggest that limited cross-border operations will not occur. Artillery strikes and small incursions will continue to take place, and, as a result, terrorist attacks by the PKK are likely to continue and may even escalate.
Despite the high risk from terrorism and conflict in Turkey, red24 does not advise against travel to the country. We do, however, advise that you increase vigilance and maintain awareness of your surroundings at all times. red24 advises against all non-essential travel to the predominantly Kurdish south east, especially along the border areas with Iran and Iraq, given the low-level conflict between Kurdish militants and the Turkish army, especially with the current risk that an escalation in the conflict may include northern Iraq.
Tags: travel safety, red24, turkey, iraq, kurdish
<< Previous Story Next Story >>
Add your comments
