Elections in the Philippines – A catalyst for violence
PHILIPPINES | Thursday, 10 May 2007 | Views [817]
On 14 May 2007, 45 million Filipinos will go to the polls to vote in mid-term legislative and local elections. The polls, contested by nearly 87,000 candidates, are being touted as a referendum on President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s governance. At stake in the national legislative elections are twelve out of the 24 seats in the national Senate (successful candidates are elected on six-year terms) and all 236 seats in the House of Representatives (elected on three year terms). The local elections will determine 17,000 offices, including provincial governorships, council seats and mayoral positions. The result of the elections will determine whether Arroyo will be able to survive until her presidential term ends in 2010. However, the recent election period in the Philippines has been marred by violence. Yesterday, an aide to a gubernatorial candidate in Compostela Valley, a province 960 km south east of Manila, was shot and killed at his home. The man’s daughter was also wounded in the attack. This incident exemplifies the election-inspired deterioration in the Philippines’ security environment over the past four months and brings the total number of people killed this year in election-related violence to 100. It is highly likely that this death toll will increase as the election approaches and political rivalries intensify, and that the violence will escalate throughout the country and reach its zenith on election day itself.
Election-related violence is not a new phenomenon in the Philippines. Politics in this Southeast Asian country has long been characterised by the three ‘G’s’ – guns, goons and gold. This volatile brew conspires to create an electoral scene that is notorious by international standards for its violence. In elections held between 1986 and 2001, over 750 people lost their lives in poll-related violence, and in the last elections in 2004, 250 election-related violent incidents saw almost 200 people lose their lives and a further 280 wounded. Sadly, this year’s election demonstrates a continuation of this destructive and depressing trend.
The election violence in the Philippines is a result of strong clan rivalries, competition for lucrative public positions, a pervasive gun culture and the existence of communist and Islamist insurgencies. Clans and political dynasties dominate the Philippines’ political scene. The feudal nature of this political environment lends itself to bitter, entrenched rivalries and competition; disagreements and feuds between candidates and their backers often turn violent. This dynamic is particularly acute in the local elections, a component of the democratic process that accounts for a significant proportion of Monday’s poll. The stakes in such local ballots are extremely high. The spoils for winning local political office are massive in the Philippines – local office brings power, prestige, money and connections – and the rewards will only increase as the country’s fiscal decentralisation gathers pace. As a consequence, it is little wonder that elections in the Philippines are bitterly contested affairs.
Adding to the potential for violence is the fact that many political candidates in the Philippines employ ‘private armies’, ostensibly to provide protection for themselves and their families. Large numbers of weapons and men also lends a certain degree of prestige to candidates, who, with their cavalcades of blacked-out SUVs and large private armies, are often regarded as symbols of power and influence. However, these private armies are also deployed by politicians in order to intimidate or eliminate rivals and coerce the electorate.
Compounding the problem of these private armies is the proliferation of what the Philippine police call ‘loose firearms’ across the country. Although President Arroyo and her government has attempted to curb gun use over the election period by introducing a nationwide gun ban enforced by 24 hour roadblocks, the problem is so large that it is almost impossible to overcome. To start with, there are more than 800,000 licensed gun owners in the country, and there are millions more illegal firearms in circulation. Since the start of the election period and the gun ban, the police have detained more than 2,000 violators and seized more than 1,700 firearms, 60 grenades and 50 improvised explosive devices.
The smouldering communist insurgency and Islamist separatist movements in the southern Philippines also add another dimension to the country’s fractious security environment in the run-up to the elections. Both insurgency movements have contributed to electoral violence and disruption since the late 1980s. Their aim is to undermine the state’s authority by sabotaging the democratic process and to demonstrate their continued resilience in the face of the authority’s counter-terrorism efforts. The main communist insurgent group, the New People’s Army, has a track record of assassinating candidates that have a law enforcement or military background, and of extorting fees for safe access to rebel territory (popularly called the PTC or ‘permit to campaign’). There have already been reports of such incidents during this election, and such activities are likely to be stepped up in the coming days. Islamist terror groups such as the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) group can also be expected to target the elections, which provide both a target-rich environment and a high-profile opportunity to demonstrate their robustness in the face of military activity. The bombing of a market on 8 May in the city of Tacurong, on Mindanao island, in which at least eight people were killed and some 30 wounded, gives an indication of the type of violence that the Philippines may witness in the next few days.
Given the feudal nature of the political environment, the high stakes involved, the presence of private armies, the easy availability of weaponry and the existence of two ideologically-based insurgency campaigns, it is little wonder that the Philippines has long suffered from election-related violence. Considering the importance of this election and the spate of recent attacks, this year’s elections appear highly likely to be particularly intense, and the violent incident rate and death toll is liable to exceed that of 2004. In the long-term, the political violence will die down. However, the risk of indiscriminate terrorist attacks will remain.
Tags: travel safety, red24, philippines
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