A renewed battlefield?
SRI LANKA | Friday, 30 March 2007 | Views [724] | Comments [1]
On 26 March, shortly before 01:00 local time, two light aircraft (one according to the government) belonging to the Liberation Tigers of Ealam (LTTE) dropped several bombs on Sri Lanka's Katunayake air force base situated next to Colombo international airport. Three airmen were killed and 16 others injured in the attack, which forced the temporary closure of the airport and caused Sri Lanka's stock market to fall by 1.3 percent. After launching the attack, the rebels managed to turn around and fly back from where they came, presumably an airstrip in the north. Shortly after the air strike a pro-LTTE Tamil website, Tamilnet, released a number of photos showing pilots in blue tiger-stripped uniforms alongside rebel leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran. Also shown were pictures of the aircraft with bombs attached to the fuselage. The LTTE's newfound status as an air power adds a new dimension to the conflict. However, the group will struggle to replicate attacks such as this, and the nature of the conflict is unlikely to change much. The attacks nevertheless constitute a psychological victory for the LTTE and will boost their spirits in the short-term.
The LTTE, or Tamil Tigers, has proven itself an able insurgent group since 1983, when it started its armed campaign against the majority Sinhalese-led government. The rebels' quest for an independent homeland for the ethnic Tamil minority has seen them control large swathes of land in the north and the east of the country. The LTTE has assassinated heads of state from Sri Lanka and India and is the only insurgent group in the world to boast a naval wing, the Sea Tigers. The rebels have now confirmed what Sri Lankan intelligence operatives have suspected for some time, the existence of a basic air force.
The Tigers’ air force has raised a number of concerns within Sri Lanka's military establishment. Chief among these is the possibility that this development may change the traditional borders of the war from the historically conflict-prone north and east to the rest of the country. Previously the rebels have been able only to strike areas outside of the conflict zone via their suicide bomber cadres. That the aircraft not only managed to travel undetected all the way from rebel-held north of the country to the airbase, some 36km north of Colombo, but also managed to return unscathed, has raised questions over the Sri Lankan military's ability to counter an air threat. There is also concern that the rebels will now have access to a number of previously unrealistic targets, such as the residences and offices of prominent figures, naval installations out at sea and heavily guarded military targets.
Although there is no doubting the significance of this air strike by the Tigers, it is important to analyse the group's air capability and the likelihood of success in using it. The rebels are estimated by Sri Lankan intelligence agencies to possess two light aircraft and two small helicopters. These aircraft have been modified to include improvised explosives. The group has also developed two airstrips in the north, both of which have been targeted in bombing campaigns by the Sri Lankan air force in recent years. It should also be noted that the rebels are likely to only launch attacks at night to reduce the chances of being detected and shot down by anti-aircraft systems.
Although rebel spokesman, Rasiah Ilanthiraiyan, assured journalists that 'More attacks of the same nature will follow', the rebels will struggle to carry out regular strikes similar to the one near Colombo on 26 March. The military is likely to respond to the threat by carrying out bombing raids on suspected air strips in the north and by acquiring a modern air defence system. The rebels' first air strike caused minimal damage to the Sri Lankan air force base and did not exact a great number of casualties. The military has already forced the rebels from most of their strongholds in the east and is now preparing to launch a major offensive in the north.
The days following the air strike were followed by more conventional Sri Lankan warfare. On 27 March, an LTTE suicide bomber killed eight people in an attack on an army camp in the coastal district of Batticaloa. One day later, Sri Lankan troops drove the rebels from their Kokkadicholai base near Batticaloa. This was followed by a sea battle off the coast of Trincomalee on 29 March in which the Sri Lankan navy managed to sink three rebel boats. More of the same will follow and the Tigers' air capability will not likely change the intensity or the geography of the conflict in the short- to medium-term. The air strike will, however, boost the morale of the Tigers, who have been battered of late and are due to face an onslaught by the military in the north. red24 currently advises against all non-essential travel to Sri Lanka and against all travel to the Eastern Province and all areas north of the A12 highway.
Tags: travel safety, red24, sri lanka, colombo, tamil tigers
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