Guinea - Standing on the precipice?
GUINEA | Friday, 23 February 2007 | Views [712]
On 12 February 2007, Guinean President Lansana Conte declared a 'state of siege' and established martial law and a curfew throughout Guinea. Government forces, including members of the presidential guard, gendarmes and the police, were deployed throughout the country, with major towns, such as Kankan, Nzerekore, Labe and the capital, Conakry, being placed under heavy military control. The government move occurred soon after union protesters, who have demanded that the president stand down, announced their intention to resume nationwide and open-ended strikes aimed at bringing down Conte's regime. Although the curfew was eased on 18 February, suggesting that the government believes that the threat of violence and protests has now subsided, the unions have yet to reach an agreement with Conte's administration and the situation in Guinea remains volatile. In fact, the country's social and political tensions are such that Guinea now stands on the precipice of civil strife and chaos.
The crisis now engulfing Guinea was sparked just before Christmas 2006, when President Conte, who came to power in a military coup back in 1984, personally went to Conakry's central prison and freed two close associates. The two individuals, Guinea's wealthiest businessman and a former top official of the central bank, were being held on serious fraud and corruption charges. The unconstitutional nature of their release, coupled with the state's decline and the continued impoverishment of the population, outraged Guinea's two main trade unions, the National Confederation of Guinean workers and the Guinean Workers' Union. On 10 January, they launched a nationwide and open-ended strike in an effort to oust Conte. Towns throughout Guinea rallied to support the action. Banks, schools and markets closed and tens of thousands took to the streets to protest against the regime's 23-year rule. Mobs ransacked police stations and government offices and some criminal elements in the country took advantage of the breakdown in law and order to rob shops and passers-by.
On 26 January, Conte promised to appoint a neutral prime minister who would have substantial and far-reaching powers. It was hoped that this gesture would placate his opponents, end the strike and stop the protests. However, in nominating Eugene Camara, a close political ally, on 9 February, Conte simply provoked more protests and rioting. Three days into this violence, Conte declared martial law and moved to repress the protests against his regime. On the face of it, the move appears to have worked. The violence has subsided and the government has been able to reduce the hours of the curfew. However, the situation remains tense. The stalemate continues between an apparently entrenched Conte and the unions, who have declared that the strike will not end until martial law is lifted. The longer this situation continues, the greater the likelihood of violence.
In naming Camara as prime minister and in deciding on utilising military force to restore order, the Conte regime has demonstrated that it has no intention of acquiescing to any demands and that it will fight to ensure its survival. However, it is facing a population hugely dissatisfied with the status quo. Many are angry that their country is in a dire economic state, despite large reserves of gold, diamonds, iron ore and bauxite. A recent United Nations (UN) report concluded that over ten percent of the Guinean population struggle to eat one meal a day. Salaries in Guinea are desperately low, while the price of basic goods, such as rice and petrol, continues to rise. Anger and frustration with these problems will have only increased in light of the state's violent response to the protests. Considering the level of this political tension, it looks unlikely that a compromise will be found and, if that is the case, further violent confrontations appear inevitable.
The failing health of the president is also contributing to a volatile situation. Conte is now thought to be 73 and is suffering from diabetes. It is unlikely that he will live for much longer. However, he has not named a successor and his inner circle, like Guinean society itself, is hugely divided along ethnic lines. The three-way ethno-political split between the dominant Soussou minority and the Malinke and Peul ethnic groupings has the potential to be exploited by powerful, self-interested political players and there is a real fear that the current instability or Conte's death will provoke a civil war along sectarian lines.
In addition, although Conte is a military man with close ties to the military leadership and although the regime recently increased soldiers' pay in order to buy their loyalty, a military coup attempt can also not be ruled out at this time. Senior military officers, particularly those close to Conte, are currently facing the prospect of an uncertain future and they may be compelled to act to ensure their survival. Guinea's security and defence forces are also beset with ethnic and generational divisions. The official chain of command is fragile and signs of fragmentation were seen last week when gunfire was heard inside one of Conakry's main barracks. If Guinea's current political crisis drags on, the likelihood of a coup or of some form of military mutiny increases. This would obviously have disastrous consequences, probably leading to the same sort of civil strife that engulfed Guinea's neighbours in recent years.
Guinea is no stranger to political crises or instability. President Conte has himself survived several assassination attempts and coup plots over the years and the country has witnessed first-hand the devastating implosion of neighbouring Liberia, Sierra Leone and Cote d'Ivoire. However, Guinea currently stands on the edge of a precipice, and similar turmoil is not that far way. Although the curfew has been eased, banks, government offices and major shops remain closed and the political deadlock continues. Without political change and improvements in Guinea's economic situation, violent confrontations are highly likely. If these do occur, they have the potential to tear the country apart.
Tags: travel safety, red24, guinea, conakry, state of seige, curfew, instability
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