Bangkok bombings suggest turbulent 2007 for Thailand
THAILAND | Thursday, 4 January 2007 | Views [1310]
On 31 December 2006, a series of bombs exploded across Bangkok, killing three people and injuring 42, including nine foreigners. The bombs, placed in rubbish bins and triggered by alarm clocks, went off in two batches. The first five bombs detonated around 18:00 local time and targeted a department store at the Victory Monument, a vegetable market in the Klong Toey slum and several police traffic control booths. A second round of bombs went off just after midnight in a phone booth, a hotel, and near a canal bridge in a downtown area heavily populated with hotels and shopping malls. The explosions capped a year of serious unrest for Thailand - in the past 12 months, the country has witnessed popular protests in the capital, snap elections, a military coup and an increasingly violent Islamist insurgency in the south. Unfortunately, the bombings on New Year’s Eve suggest that 2007 could be just as crisis-ridden and tumultuous for the people of Thailand.
Although there has been no claim of responsibility for the New Year’s Eve attack, Thailand’s prime minister, Surayud Chulanant, was quick to point the finger of blame at the country’s former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin, now in exile in China, was toppled last September by generals who later appointed Surayud as interim prime minister until elections in October 2007. Thaksin, for his part, immediately issued a denial. Speaking through his solicitor, he called allegations of his involvement unfair and condemned the attacks, the blame for which he laid at the door of Islamist Muslim from the south. However, although an insurgent attack on Bangkok has been anticipated by red24 for some time, it is unlikely that the 31 December attack was carried out by an Islamist terror group. Firstly, the bombs used in the Bangkok attack were small and unsophisticated compared to those used in the south on a daily basis. Secondly, the wide geographical spread of the New Year blasts across the capital is markedly different from the modus operandi of Thailand's insurgents, who tend to focus on one government building or person in each attack.
However, it is equally unlikely that Thaksin had any direct involvement in the bombings. Though unhappy with the 19 September coup that ousted him from power, he wants to return to Thailand, where his wife remains, and he would also be loathed to give the authorities more excuses to go after his family’s sizable fortune and property assets. A more likely explanation is that the bombs were the work of elements from the former regime – although Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party has denied any involvement, many of its members became wealthy under the allegedly corrupt practices of Thaksin and his removal will have impacted significantly upon their income. In addition, Thai police involvement in the bombings cannot be ruled out. Thaksin, himself a former police lieutenant-colonel, favoured these former colleagues and they stand to lose a lot, especially with the proposed reforms that the military-backed government is set to impose on them. Various personalities within both the Thai Rak Thai party and the police would have the finances and know-how to organise such an attack and both groups have a significant interest in restoring Thaksin to power – an initially remote possibility that now grows less improbable by the day.
Public confidence in the military-backed government is now rapidly decreasing. The majority of Thais breathed a sigh of relief after the coup in September. They hoped that Army Chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin would root out corruption, quell the bloody Islamist insurgency in the country’s south, and quickly restore democracy. However, with the insurgency continuing to rage in the south, shadowy arsonists burning schools in the northern Thai heartland, a recent stock market crash, the slow pace of investigations into alleged corruption in Thaksin’s government and now with the Bangkok bombings, support for the military takeover is evaporating. An opinion poll released last week in Thailand showed popular support for the new government had fallen to 48 percent from a high of 90 percent in October. All of this is increasing pressure on the government and their military backers to stabilise the country.
As public support for the new regime wanes, the likelihood of a deterioration in the security situation increases. Rumours of a counter-coup have already begun to sweep through Bangkok, and there is a possibility that if the military and its government feel threatened, they may take swift and definitive action to ensure their survival. As a consequence, those clients in-country and those planning to travel to Thailand are advised to monitor political developments in the country closely. They should also be aware that if, as is likely, Thaksin supporters were responsible for the bombings, it is probable that further attacks will occur. The perpetrators of the New Year’s Eve bombs appear to view a bombing campaign that instils an atmosphere of fear and panic among the population as an ideal mechanism to destabilise the current regime. red24 advises clients in Thailand to exercise caution and vigilance at all times, and to avoid areas that attract large numbers of people, especially major shopping centres and bus and train stations.
Tags: Travel Safety
Add your comments
Bookmark this page:
|
|
|
|
We're Carbon Neutral
