Nepal – A chance for peace?
NEPAL | Thursday, 16 November 2006 | Views [624]
Nepal’s political and security environment appears to be improving. On 8 November 2006, Nepal’s Maoist rebels and the country’s ruling Seven Party alliance reached a breakthrough agreement that will pave the way for the Maoists’ inclusion in an interim government before the election of a Constituent Assembly (CA) in June 2007. This accord saw the government and the rebels make significant concessions and both parties hailed the agreement as historic. Many in Nepal hope that the agreement will end the violence and anarchy that has gripped the country for the past ten years. However, significant obstacles remain and the country still has a long road to travel before it can be assured of peace, stability and development.
The Maoists’ decade-long insurgency to replace Nepal’s constitutional monarchy with a communist republic has cost the lives of approximately 13,000 people and has driven a further 100,000 from their homes. The government and the rebels have been conducting peace talks and negotiations since the two sides cooperated in pressuring the autocratic King Gyanendra to relinquish power in April 2005. Although the talks have been slow and arduous, with such issues as disarmament and the future role of the king proving particularly difficult to solve, it now appears that both the government and the Maoists have reached a workable agreement that will hopefully end the bloodshed and bring some stability to Nepal.
In the agreement, which is reportedly to be officially signed on 16 November, the Maoists have agreed to separate their soldiers and weaponry under United Nations (UN) supervision. Regular Maoist soldiers, of which there are 35,000, will be housed in seven major cantonments in the districts of Ilam, Kavve, Palpa, Rolpa, Sindhuli and Kailali until CA elections are held next June. Although these cadres will retain some arms to ensure the security of their camps, the majority of their weaponry will be stored in sealed caches. The Maoists will have access to these weapon stores, but they will be monitored by UN forces via CCTV and alarm systems. In a reciprocal agreement, the 90,000-strong Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) will be confined to barracks and will also place some of their weaponry under UN supervision. The RNA disarmament process is to be completed by 24 November.
Following the successful disarmament of the Maoists and the RNA, an interim constitution will be announced on 26 November before the rebels join a transitional government on 1 December. Elections to the CA will then take place by the second week of June 2007 and will be monitored by the UN. In order to facilitate this democratic process, the Maoists have agreed to dismantle the ‘people’s government’ and ‘people’s courts’ structures that they had created in the areas they controlled and have renounced violence. Both the government and the Maoists have agreed that the future of the monarchy will be decided by the CA in its first meeting by a simple majority vote.
Although the agreement has been greeted warmly and optimistically by many, there are several obstacles that could yet derail the peace process. Firstly, although the Maoists regular cadres will be under UN supervision, there is no such oversight for the 100,000 plus members of the Maoist militias that patrol large swathes of Nepalese territory. These lightly armed units have become content with collecting ‘revolutionary taxes’ from the country’s rural areas and have the capability to jeopardise the agreement through violence and intimidation. However, as they are somewhat detached from the Maoists’ command and control authority, it is unclear whether the Maoist leadership will be able to rein them in sufficiently. Furthermore, given the paucity of alternative income sources for these men, even if the Maoist leaders could exert enough influence over these militias it is unlikely that they would disband willingly.
Secondly, the Maoists are demanding that their 35,000 regular soldiers be integrated in the RNA once the CA elections are complete. This is a potential flashpoint that could trigger further violence and bloodshed. Nepal’s army is renowned for its loyalty to the king and although its soldiers have been confined to their barracks since King Gyanendra was removed from power in April, they may well be moved to action if they are forced to merge with the rebels that they have been fighting against for the past ten years.
A third issue when evaluating the likely success of this peace process is the fact that there are large question marks hanging over the Maoists’ commitment to the democratic process. The rebels have a frightening track record of compelling the local population to cooperate, and coercion in the form of kidnapping and intimidation is a standard rebel tactic. If the Maoists do not fare well in the CA elections next June, or if the CA fails to remove the monarchy and drafts a constitution that does not satisfactorily appease the Maoists’ socialist goals, it is possible that the rebels will react with force. Should such protest action and violence transpire, Kathmandu will likely be especially vulnerable.
Although the turnaround in Nepal appears genuine, with both the government and the rebels making notable concessions, there are no guarantees that the country will experience a smooth transition to peace and stability. The Maoists’ unpredictable peasant force, the possibility of an aggrieved and marginalised military and question marks over the Maoists’ commitment to democracy mean that the path to peace, stability and security will not be straightforward. It is likely that the next few months will remain volatile and unpredictable. Consequently, red24 advises cautious travel to Nepal.
Tags: travel safety, nepal
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