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Lebanon's uncertain future

LEBANON | Thursday, 21 September 2006 | Views [675]

Lebanon’s ‘Cedar’ Revolution in the early months of 2005 gave hope to many in Lebanon that their country would emerge from 30 years of Syrian control as a thriving, diverse, democratic, commercial centre. However, 34 days of war on Lebanese soil between Israel and Hezbollah have left the county in ruins and that hope all but extinguished. Although the United Nations (UN)-brokered ceasefire has now held for over a month and the first elements of a UN peacekeeping force have arrived, a lasting peace is far from certain and Lebanon faces a difficult future. The economic damage caused by the conflict is huge, sectarian tensions are rising, the government is under sustained attack from opposition parties, and Hezbollah is growing in power and influence and shows little sign of comprehensively disarming.

The war between Hezbollah and Israel wreaked terrible destruction on Lebanon. Over a 1,000 Lebanese lost their lives in the conflict, over 4,000 were wounded and some 900,000 (a quarter of the country’s entire population) were displaced. Israeli forces damaged or destroyed 15,000 homes, over 900 commercial premises, 78 bridges, 630km of road and 32 airports, ports, water and sewage treatment facilities, dams and electrical plants. The UN estimates that the economic cost of the war to Lebanon could be as high as US$15 billion and there is little to doubt the severe impact to the country’s economic development. Although the county has managed to secure aid pledges equal to US$3.6 billion from the international community and despite the fact that Israel has now lifted its crippling naval and air blockades, the task of recovery remains enormous and Lebanon is almost certainly destined for a painful and damaging recession. Even before the war, Lebanon was struggling to pull itself out of a massive debt that stood at almost US$40 billion – 183 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. The decimation of the country’s tourism industry and the inevitable reduction in foreign investment caused by the war will only exacerbate the Lebanese economy’s longstanding structural problems and will bring financial hardship to significant portions of the Lebanese population.

Although in strictly military terms Hezbollah’s capabilities have actually been diminished the groups popularity, however, appears to have been strengthened by the war. Israeli air strikes are thought to have destroyed the group’s longer-range missiles and the presence of foreign fleets offshore and of the Lebanese army along the Syrian border mean that Hezbollah will not have an easy time receiving replacements from Iran. Hezbollah is also thought to have lost some 700 men during the course of the war and the introduction of a robust UN force in the south makes it unlikely that Hezbollah will be able to operate along the frontline with anything like the effectiveness it used to enjoy. However, the movement’s comprehensive disarmament looks highly unlikely. Although UN Resolution 1701 calls for the ‘disarmament of all armed groups’ in Lebanon, it remains unlikely that the weak national army will have the ability or willingness to disarm the organisation that enjoys so much support among the people in the south considering the weakness of the Lebanese government and the presence of Hezbollah representatives in the cabinet. As it is, Hezbollah will most likely remain in possession of its armaments and, as such, further Israeli military action cannot be ruled out.

In addition to hanging on to its weaponry, Hezbollah has grown in both popularity and influence. The militant group has swiftly and efficiently won the post-conflict propaganda war and support for the movement is increasing. With the international community slow to provide the promised aid to the mainly Shiite communities in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah moved quickly to fill the aid vacuum. The militant group has quickly implemented a comprehensive rehabilitation programme, offering US$12,000 to families that have lost their homes as a result of Israeli bombing. In addition to serving these areas, Hezbollah has also begun work in helping predominantly Sunni areas, like the northern area of Akkar, where the guerrillas have reportedly repaired some 200 houses in 13 villages. Such work has bolstered the group’s already high support. Indeed, many Lebanese have also been persuaded that the militia’s battlefield success in holding at bay a far more powerful Israeli war machine has earned them the right to call the shots in the country’s future.

It is this increasing support for Hezbollah, however, that is causing dangerous ethnic and sectarian tensions to surface. Many Christians are fearful that Hezbollah will once again pursue its early goal of establishing Islamic rule over Lebanon, while Sunni Muslims are caught between the satisfaction at seeing Israel taken down a notch and the terror of the prospect of being sidelined by the Iranian-funded Shiite Muslim movement. These tensions have not been helped by the incendiary rhetoric emanating from Hezbollah and the government. Hezbollah officials have consistently accused the government of ‘collaborating with Israel and its Western backers’ in an effort to destroy the radical group’s resistance and expose Lebanon to further attacks. In response, the ruling coalition, a grouping of Sunni Muslim, right-wing Christian and liberal independents, blames Hezbollah of provoking the recent war and of turning Lebanon into ‘a battleground used by Iran to improve its bargaining position with the international community and by the Syrians to exercise its hegemony over Lebanon’. Events escalated still further in late August when Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, a party tactically allied to Hezbollah, called for the government to step down ‘peacefully’ and threatened that ‘if this change does not happen…there are other ways to escalate from now on.

Considering the levels of internal turmoil, the growing strength of sectarian and ethnic divisions, the provocative rhetoric of authorities and a dire economic outlook, another devastating civil war in Lebanon cannot be ruled out. Also, failure to disarm Hezbollah increases the likelihood that Israel will resume hostilities in an effort to ensure its own security. As demonstrated by the recent war, this will have devastating repercussions for the Lebanese state and its people.

Tags: travel safety, lebanon

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